First Presidential Debate, Taiwan Election 2012

The debate took place yesterday, December 3, from 2pm to 4:30pm. Candidates were positioned by their numbers: Ma Ying-jeou from Chinese Nationalist Party KMT (coded: blue) and the incumbent, Tsai Ing-wen from Democratic Progressive Party DPP (green), and James Soong from People First Party PFP (orange, but considers to be in the Blue Camp)). Each candidate gave an introduction. They then answered two rounds of questions from five major newspapers: Central News Agency 中央社, Apple Daily 蘋果日報 (Hong Kong-based company that is anti-communist and pro-liberalism), United Daily 聯合報 (leans toward the Blue Camp), Liberty Times 自由時報 (leans toward the Green Camp), and China Times 中國時報 (leans toward the Blue Camp). Each candidate then has the opportunity to pose two rounds of questions for their opponents. The debate ended with an eight-minute conclusion from each candidate.

All candidates avoided answering directly some questions that would hurt their candidacy. E.g., to pardon or not Chen Shui-bian (see more below) (explicitly directed at Tsai), to state "no independence" (explicitly directed at Tsai), or to explain his relationship with a major gangster boss (implicitly directed at Ma). Ma was mainly attacking Tsai, Tsai was defending herself while outlining her broad vision, and Soong praised Ma's China-Taiwan economic relations agreement, Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) but agreed with many of Tsai's criticisms of Ma's presidency. Both Ma and Tsai agreed with many things that Soong said. Soong has the least baggage out of the three candidates: Ma has the baggage of the incumbent, Tsai has the baggage of Chen Shui-bian, but Soong has the excellent reputation as the last governor of Taiwan. I have these ratings for these candidates' performance: Soong #1, Tsai #2, and Ma #3. Everyone knows my political stance, thus read my explanation below.

My analysis of each candidate:
Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) had the weakest performance.
- Body language--- His body was not positioned well. He constantly leaned toward one side, instead of toward the center to face the audience/television. His pace was fast, and gave off a rushed feel, as if he was panicking. His tone toward Tsai Ing-wen often lacked respect and courtesy, as he used a light, almost joking-tone with her.
- Strategy--- 1) Ma's introduction began by viciously attacking Tsai Ing-wen, his biggest opponent. He tried to equate Tsai Ing-wen with Chen Shui-bian (two-term president from DPP, 2000-2008), who has been in imprison and has been consistently indicted of corruption charges since his term ended in 2008. He also equated DPP with Chen Shui-bian. As a whole, Taiwanese people had become sour with Chen Shui-bian and people associated with him because of these indictments. (Note: These indictments are politically-motivated, if we put aside the fact that some are true. The judicial procedures surrounding his imprisonment and indictment have received international attention because of unfair and unjust practices). 2) Ma cited numbers to support his claim that Taiwan had become richer (average income) and more internationally known (Taipei just won the bid to host the 2017 Summer World University Game) under his presidency.
- Content--- 1) Ma apologized for failing to fulfill the 633 plan 「633政策」 from the 2008 presidential run. He said that the plan was an idea and framework, and promised to continue to work hard. 2) Ma, using a weaker than James Soong's explanation, explained his cross-strait (China-Taiwan relation) policy: "Three No's: No unification, No independence, No Military Force" 「三不：不統不獨不武」, and the "One China Policy"「一中各表」 in "1992 Consensus" 「九二共識」. 3) Even though he apologized for falling short on his promises, he did not explain practical approaches he would take to implement them if he wins a second term. He relied on "Taiwan has gotten better under my presidency, and I will work harder to make it even better." He failed to address all criticisms that other candidates have pointed out as areas that Ma failed to do in the last three years. The reality is there is a growing discontent in Taiwan toward Ma because he has not done much at all, except for pushing for a closer China-Taiwan relations in the last three years. Ma did not address the increased gap between the rich and the poor (instead he focused on the rising average income in Taiwan), increasing marginalization of farmers and other disadvantaged groups, employees' decreased salary and unpaid vacation 無薪假期, and college graduates' low salary and unemployment problem, just to name a few.

Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) had the second-best performance.
- Body language--- Tsai looked comfortable up there, with a just-right facial expression. Her tone and pace were also appropriate- calm even when facing attacks, and respectful even when she criticized Ma.
- Strategy--- Tsai distanced herself from Chen Shui-bian right away, by telling Ma that Ma is running against Tsai, and not Chen, in this election.
- Content--- Tsai's focus on policy framework was good. She has plans for each area of presidency. Her economic policy was sound- a focus on keeping industries in Taiwan itself to increase employment rates, but at the same time to make Taiwan an active participant in the global market by helping companies do business in many countries (implying not just China). Tsai's attention to the middle-lower class people, and social benefits was good. But she did not defend well against two of Ma's attacks: 1) Although her approach to China-Taiwan relations is good because she wants a democratic process to decide how to approach China, called the "Taiwan Consensus" 「台灣共識」, her failure to explain what the democratic process entails has weakened her performance. Ma kept on attacked this Taiwanese Consensus as an "empty box" because "no one knows what it contains." 2) Tsai did not use the opportunity of Ma's attack on DPP's incorrect advertisement of the image of a specific type of persimmon and its price 「二元柿子」 to further explain the problem of decreasing agricultural production (because of industrialization) and farmers' plight in Taiwan.

James Soong (PFP) had the best performance.
- Body language--- Soong looked comfortable up there, with a just-right facial expression. His tone and pace were also appropriate, never raising his voice when stating his criticisms. Combined with his presentation of concrete examples of his policy, Soong came off as the "most competent" candidate.
- Strategy--- He agreed with Tsai's critique of Ma's failed domestic policy, while praising Ma's policy dealing with China. He criticized KMT and DPP's negative attacks against each other. He claimed that voters wanted to hear more policy, and no more "saliva war" 口水戰爭. Obviously, Soong has the advantage of not having any baggage. He would often say, "In the last 12 years, X has gotten worse." "12 years" refers to 2000 to 2012 (Chen Shui-bian a DPP president and Ma Ying-jeou a KMT president). He champions the idea of democracy in Taiwan, which he uses interchangeably with Republic of China. His mention of Chiang Ching-kuo 蔣經國, son of Chiang Kai-shek, seems to appeal to those old guards of KMT who lingered on the Chiang rule.
- Content--- I rated Soong the highest because he mentioned the most concrete examples of policies that he would implement if elected. Often, politicians are too busy outlining their talking points, which are always vague, that I do not know how they would actually do it. For example, "I would strengthen Taiwan's economy." This is a line that everyone would say. But Soong (although still not concrete enough) stated the focus of his economic policy 三中: middle class, small to mid-size business, and middle and lower income (中產階級、中小企業、中低收入戶). He also talked about a faster and a better internet system in Taiwan.

In conclusion, Soong came off the debate as the most candidate because he not only provided broad framework, he also provided some concrete policies. He does not have the political baggage of the other two candidates. Tsai came in close second because she performed and defended well, but could have clarified in two issues. Ma was a distant third because not only did he appeared panicked and aggressive, he also had no practical plan to revert his failed first-term- he thinks he is perfect.

News channels had late-night analysis of the debate. Pro-KMT channel bashed Tsai's performance and made corruption charges (TVBS), pro-DPP channel (三立) praised Tsai performance and condemned Ma's attack, and pro-Soong channel (年代) rated Soong's performance as the best, although some invited guests praised Ma's performance as well.